Forecasting infant mortality rates in Turkey between 2024 and 2035 with Facebook prophet model a time series study
Keywords:
Forecasting, infant mortality rate, time series analysisAbstract
Background: The infant mortality rate is often used as an indicator to assess the overall health status of a society, measure the level of development in countries, and reflect their socioeconomic and demographic conditions. It is recognized as one of the most critical indicators of development.
Aim: This study utilizes data on infant mortality rates per thousand from 2009 to 2023, sourced from the TUIK database, to estimate changes in Turkey’s future infant mortality rates over time.
Method: The study employs time series analysis using the Facebook Prophet model to project infant mortality rates in Turkey from 2024 to 2035. The primary objective is to analyze the trends in infant mortality rates and provide long-term forecasts to inform health policies.
Results: The findings indicate that the infant mortality rate in Turkey could decrease to 7.69 per thousand by 2035. Additionally, projections suggest that the infant mortality rate may range between a minimum of 6.53 per thousand and a maximum of 8.95 per thousand during this period.
Conclusion: To reduce infant mortality rates, it is recommended to increase health expenditures, enhance the availability and qualifications of healthcare professionals, and implement effective and evidence-based care practices.
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